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Published Dec 10, 2020

The Post-Pandemic World Economy

Scott Galloway and Dambisa Moyo delve into the post-pandemic world economy, analyzing evolving stock market dynamics, subscription trends, government expansion, and the critical need for long-term policies to address deglobalization and inequality.
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  • Government Expansion

    The post-pandemic world is poised for a significant expansion in government roles, according to . She predicts larger debts and deficits as governments become more involved in welfare provision and economic arbitration 1. This shift could lead to a smaller private sector, as regulatory scrutiny increases and companies consolidate to avoid heavy burdens 1. Moyo emphasizes that government efficiency is crucial, noting, "Government, which acts on the data driven, forward leaning, measured outcomes and in a non corrupt way, can be incredibly catalytic for economic success." 2

       

    Private Sector

    The private sector is expected to shrink as regulatory and economic shifts take hold. highlights a trend of consolidation and mergers, driven by increased regulation and societal scrutiny 1. This has led to oligopolies in key sectors like banking and technology, with governments likely to push for more aggressive antitrust measures 3. She points out, "We've started to see hallmarks of that, especially as many of the largest sectors are now dominated by just a handful of corporations globally." 3

       

    Deglobalization

    Deglobalization is gaining momentum, affecting trade, immigration, and economic policies. notes that this trend was already in motion before the pandemic, with a reduction in trade and capital flows 3. She argues that protectionist policies hinder globalization, as seen in agriculture where subsidies protect local markets at the expense of global efficiency 4. Moyo laments, "I wish we'd been a much more coordinated global world. But, you know, it's a far cry." 4

       

    Economic Risks

    The pandemic has exposed significant economic vulnerabilities, particularly around debt and inequality. warns that high debt-to-GDP ratios can slow economic growth and exacerbate social issues 5. She highlights the precarious position of many economies, including the U.S., where debt levels limit policy options 5. Moyo explains, "There are a number of other vulnerabilities that are second order effects of having a government that is so vulnerable in terms of its debts and deficits." 6

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