Conversation with Jared Cohen — The Macroeconomic Environment + Life After Power

Inflation Perceptions

Jared Cohen, President of Global Affairs at Goldman Sachs, highlights the dual nature of inflation, distinguishing between quantitative measures and psychological perceptions. He emphasizes that while inflation numbers are crucial for economists, the public's perception of inflation, particularly regarding essential goods like food and gas, can significantly influence voter behavior. Cohen notes, "Psychological inflation, very hard to measure, and you certainly can't quantitatively measure it" 1. This perception can persist even if prices stabilize, affecting electoral outcomes and economic sentiment.

   

Supply Chain Dynamics

Cohen discusses the critical role of supply chains in the global economy, particularly in the context of US-China relations. He warns that the US's efforts to diversify supply chains, such as those for critical minerals and pharmaceuticals, may not align with economic realities, as China holds significant leverage in these areas. "92% of that refinement and processing happens in China," Cohen explains, highlighting the challenges of decoupling 2. Additionally, he points to India's strategic positioning as a beneficiary of US-China tensions, choosing alliances based on economic advantage 3.