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Published Nov 5, 2024

Raging Moderates - The Final Stretch and What To Look for on Election Night

Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov dissect the evolving political landscape as they delve into the controversial narratives surrounding RFK Jr., media influence, and election integrity. Through analysis of polling data and battleground states, they offer a critical look at potential election outcomes and the looming legal challenges that threaten to disrupt electoral trust.
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  • Polling Insights

    Recent polling data reveals intriguing insights into the current political landscape. highlights the New York Times Siena College poll, showing Harris leading in several key states, while notes a resurgence in Democratic enthusiasm, surpassing levels seen in 2008 1. This enthusiasm is reflected in the Gallup survey, which shows Democrats more eager than Republicans by a significant margin 1.

    It's confirmation bias gone crazy. So it wasn't the Iowa poll. It was that this woman, Ann Selzer, who is from the heartland, she doesn't live in LA or New York and has this annoying habit of being remarkably correct with her polls.

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    also mentions the impact of ethical candidates like John Tester, suggesting a potential shift in voter priorities 2.

       

    Battleground States

    The focus on battleground states is crucial as they could determine the election outcome. emphasizes the importance of states like North Carolina and Georgia, which could signal a significant advantage for Harris if they lean in her favor 3. Meanwhile, discusses the potential for legal battles, with both campaigns preparing for contested results 3.

    One thing that's clear, this race is expected to be the most contested in history. Trump is already toying with the public's trust in the results.

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    The campaigns' strategies in these states, including appearances and key messages, are pivotal in swaying undecided voters 4.

       

    Momentum Shift

    A notable shift in political momentum has been observed, potentially influencing the election's outcome. notes a change in perception of Trump, who appears to have aged significantly, impacting his public image 5. This shift is mirrored in the fluctuating odds on platforms like Polymarket, where Harris's chances have seen a recent uptick 6.

    The likelihood according to Polymarket, that Harris will win the presidency has gone from a low of 38.6% to a high of 43.2.

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    The demographic changes, with younger and more diverse voters entering the electorate, are also expected to play a crucial role in shaping the election results 6.

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